After the Chesapeake Bay enjoyed the highest levels of dissolved oxygen in decades last year, a Bay Journal blog article (2017-06-15) reported that the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES) and the University of Michigan are predicting the Bay’s oxygen-starved “dead zone” will be larger than in recent years – growing to 1.9 cubic miles. The article indicated that weather was a key factor in the growth of the dead zone. From the article:

“The forecast is a reminder that the improvements such as we saw last year are subject to reversal depending on weather conditions—two steps forward, one step back,” said UMCES President Donald F. Boesch. …

This spring, scientists say, heavy rains fell in Pennsylvania and New York, which flushed an above-average amount of nitrogen down the Susquehanna River. …

“Although the higher forecasts for this summer seem to buck a recent trend toward lower anoxic volumes in Chesapeake Bay, they are consistent with known links between high river flows and oxygen depletion,” said Jeremy Testa, assistant professor at the UMCES Chesapeake Biological Laboratory.

The article noted that despite the dead zone forecast, overall Bay health has shown signs of long-term improvement based on the restoration and pollution reduction efforts undertaken by the federal government, states, and local governments.

“Despite this year’s forecast, we’ve made great strides in reducing nutrient pollution from various sources entering the Chesapeake Bay, and we are starting to see positive long-term signs,” said Rob Magnien, director of NOAA’s Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research. “However, more work needs to be done to address non-point nutrient pollution from farms and other developed lands, to make the Bay cleaner for its communities and economic interests.”

The article also discussed the importance of continued federal funding for Bay restoration efforts.

The Maryland Commission on Climate Change (MCCC) met on June 21, 2017, and re-committed to the continuation of its climate change goals, including the State’s goal of reducing greenhouse gases by 40% by 2030.

Maryland’s Position on Climate Change at State and National Levels 

Maryland Secretary of the Environment Benjamin Grumbles reiterated that Governor Larry Hogan and Maryland will be moving forward with the State’s climate change action plan and is encouraging other states to participate in REGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative). Grumbles also noted that the State is reviewing the newly formed United States Climate Alliance but has not yet decided whether it will participate.

Maryland Senator Paul Pinsky stressed the importance of remaining in the Paris Climate Accord and that the Climate Alliance represented a key opportunity to continue United States participation. (Previously President Donald Trump had announced the United States was withdrawing from the Paris Accords but intended to rejoin after renegotiating participation terms.) Grumbles responded that the Governor has stated the importance of the United States participating in the Accord but that Maryland’s participation in the Alliance is still under review and there could be other equally effective methods of encouraging climate change.

Chesapeake Climate Action Network founder and director Mike Tidwell argued that participating in the Alliance sent an important message and that strengthening REGGI (particularly the cap) was also critical. Grumbles agreed that REGGI could be improved and did not rule out Maryland’s ultimate participation in the Alliance.

Discussion on “40 by 30” Goal

The bi-partisan Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act of 2016 (SB 323) requires Maryland to achieve a 40% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from their 2006 levels by 2030. The legislation also includes some economic and job protections as the State works to achieve the reduction goal. Maryland is on track to meet a prior emission reduction goal of 25% by 2025.

The new 40 by 30 draft plan is due by end of 2018 and a final plan is due by the end of 2019. There is a mid-point review in 2022 and the Act must be reauthorized through legislation in 2023.  The plan must reduce 57 to 61 metric tons of greenhouse gases to account for existing pollution sources and anticipated population and pollution growth.

The current 2025 plan will get the State a good portion of the way, but will leave a gap that must be addressed. Programs for more fuel efficient cars and aircraft and electric vehicles should help. The State is developing better data on carbon sequestration by wetlands and trees.

Pinsky raised concerns about the accuracy of some of the assumed greenhouse gas emission and reduction assumptions and that other policy options, such as a carbon tax, must be at least discussed. Grumbles noted that the assumptions are based on modeled and need further refinement and that the discussed programs were not necessarily the only programs that could be considered.

The MCCC decided to have a further discussion on the issue through its workgroups and at future meetings. It was also noted that the plan needs to consider what will need to be done beyond 2030, even though future goals have not yet been set.

New Climate Change Commission Website

MCCC has just launched a new and more user-friendly website. The website will be further refined over time to ensure ease of use and public accessibility.

2017 MCCC Annual Report

The deadline of the 2017 MCCC Annual Report is November 15, 2017.

Other Actions

MCCC also received an update on the climate change activities of various State agencies, approved a series of one-page climate change handouts for final review, and reviewed the activities of its four work groups.

Useful Links

MCCC Website

A Bay Net article (2017-06-13) reported on the 30th annual Chesapeake Bay wade-in by former Maryland State Senator and MACo President Bernie Fowler. In what is now a tradition, each year Senator Fowler wades into the Chesapeake Bay until the white sneakers that he wears are no longer visible. Fowler and others have used this unofficial “sneaker index” to highlight the overall health of the Bay. The article noted that sneaker visibility in the Bay was less than 10 inches in the early 1980s but reached a high of 44.5 inches in 2015. The 2017 index was 41.5 inches. From the article:

[Maryland Congressman Steny Hoyer], who lives on the Patuxent River in St. Mary’s County, added that Fowler’s actions and advocacy as first a county commissioner and then a state senator helped significantly reduce the tons of sediment that pollute the river.

Greg Bowen, a former Calvert County Department of Planning and Zoning director and county native, stated that Fowler “has always relied on science” when assessing the state of the region’s waterways. Bowen credited Fowler with stopping “direct discharge” sewerage systems in Calvert when he was a local elected official. …

Maryland Department of Environment Secretary Ben H. Grumbles and Department of Planning Secretary Wendi W. Peters presented Fowler with a proclamation from Hogan. Grumbles drew applause when he told the gathering that the Hogan Administration was committed to pressing the Trump Administration for the full restoration of funds previously earmarked for the restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries. “We are all inspired by your leadership,” Grumbles told Fowler.

A Phys.org article (2017-06-05) reported that NASA is adopting Fowler’s “sneaker index” as an easy-to-understand method to communicate about the health of the Bay and that the index is actually based on sound science. From the article:

Now NASA is adopting Fowler’s sneaker idea to communicate satellite measurements of water clarity, enabling the observations to be shared easily with interested the general public, local governments or anyone who is interested. NASA scientists calling this algorithm “Fowler’s Sneaker Depth”—the depth of water, in meters, at which a person can no longer see their white shoes. The study was published in the April 2017 edition of The Optical Society journal Optics Express. …

“When you talk to people about the chemistry of the river with scientific words like eutrophication, it goes in one ear and out the other,” said Fowler. “If you put on white sneakers and wade out in the river until you can’t see your feet, that gives you pretty good understanding of what’s going on.” …

Although the sneaker depth was primarily designed as a communication outreach tool for the public, the NASA team doesn’t discount its use for science. The sneaker depth concept is actually similar to the Secchi disk depth measurement made monthly by the Chesapeake Bay Program. In oceanography, scientists lower a plain, white disk one foot in diameter – called a Secchi disk—into the water on a rope and record the depth at which it disappears from sight. These measurements are useful for marine scientists who want to know what depth the light is reaching to understand how the phytoplankton and other underwater vegetation are growing.

“Fowler’s Sneaker Depth will come in as a metric to look at long term water clarity trends for scientifically meaningful results and communicate those to the general public,” said Ivona Cetinic, an oceanographer with the Universities Space Research Association at NASA Goddard and one of the study’s authors.