A new study warns that surging data center demand could leave PJM without enough power to reliably meet electricity needs by 2030.
A new study commissioned by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission warns that rapid electricity demand growth, driven largely by data center development, could push the PJM Interconnection outside its reliability standard by 2030. Under the study’s reference case, which uses PJM’s 2026 load forecast, the projected risk of power shortages would be nearly six times higher than PJM’s planning target. Under a higher-demand, lower-supply scenario, the modeled reliability risk rises substantially further. Among the scenarios examined, only one assuming no additional data center load allowed PJM to remain within its current reliability criterion.
PJM acknowledged that electricity demand is currently growing faster than new generation and said it is pursuing measures to increase supply and better manage large new loads. The study also points to ongoing efforts including reforms to PJM’s generation interconnection process, potential new reliability procurement, and improved load forecasting. Pennsylvania regulators are separately examining how data centers should be treated during emergency curtailments and how the costs associated with serving large new loads should be allocated. The findings have implications across PJM’s 13-state region, including Maryland, because reliability challenges and the costs of adding generation and transmission can extend beyond the jurisdiction where an individual data center is located.