A new study from the University of Pennsylvania’s Crime and Justice Policy Lab and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) suggests that
Baltimore’s Group Violence Reduction Strategy (GVRS) played a significant role in the city’s recent decline in violent crime.
The research found that Baltimore’s homicide rate between 2022 and 2025 fell substantially faster than comparable cities, with homicide levels approximately 25% below what researchers would have expected based on national trends and Baltimore’s prior trajectory.
According to the study, Baltimore’s approach combines targeted law enforcement, community-based intervention, service providers, and outreach efforts focused on individuals and groups considered most closely connected to violent crime.
Researchers found that the strategy was associated with reductions in shootings, homicides, and carjackings while overall arrest levels in the city’s Western District did not increase significantly. The study also found no evidence that violent crime was displaced into nearby communities.
For local governments, the findings contribute to an ongoing national discussion about public safety strategies that focus resources on a relatively small number of individuals at the highest risk of involvement in violent crime, rather than relying on broader enforcement efforts.
The study estimates that the social benefits associated with the reduction in violence substantially exceeded the program’s implementation costs.
“The partnership between my office, the Baltimore Police Department, and UPenn’s Crime and Justice Policy Lab has been instrumental in driving the progress we’re seeing in Baltimore,” said Baltimore Mayor Brandon M. Scott. “Working alongside community members, outreach workers, and our law enforcement partners, we’ve been able to deliver sustained reductions in violence across Baltimore, and this new research confirms that we’re moving in the right direction. Our work is a model for data-driven, community-led public safety, and I hope it will help other cities looking to get at the root of violence and save lives.”
Researchers noted that additional analysis is ongoing to better understand the relative contribution of individual components of the strategy, including deterrence efforts, targeted enforcement, community outreach, and service provision.
The full working paper is available through the National Bureau of Economic Research.
