Forecasters predict an extremely active season with approximately 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
Colorado State University’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting projected 2024 to be an extremely active hurricane season with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. This is the most active forecast that CSU has predicted in 30 years. While the current forecast is aggressive, there have been more active seasons.
According to Colorado State University,
Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. This forecast is of above-normal confidence for an early April outlook. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.
The data points to a 62% chance of a hurricane hitting somewhere within the United States and a 66% of hitting the Caribbean. There is a 34% chance of a hurricane hitting the East Coast and a 42% chance for the Gulf Coast. Rising global temperatures due to climate change are almost certainly contributing to the record prediction and will likely contribute to increasingly active seasons in the future.
As the boots on the ground public service providers in Maryland, counties are particularly concerned when aggressive hurricane seasons are forecasted. Maryland is already facing financial headwinds and landfall from a hurricane or major hurricane may exacerbate an already strained financial situation.