In an op-ed published by Maryland Matters (2017-11-07), Josh Kurtz ruminated on the unusually open nature of many of Maryland’s state and local elections next year. Kurtz highlighted a number of races that at the moment appear very difficult to predict. Here is just a partial list of contested positions discussed in the op-ed:
A wide-open, eight-candidate race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, with no obvious frontrunner – and potential paths to victory for just about everybody. …
How vulnerable is Gov. Larry Hogan (R), really? There will be plenty of external forces at work, and chances are good that the general election is going to be close. …
Look around the state: Who’s going to be the next Baltimore County executive? There are closely-fought primaries in both parties, and the general election is likely to be, too. …
Who’s going to be the next Prince George’s County executive? Two strong women are competing against each other for the job – and a woman has never held that office before.
Who’s going to be the next Montgomery County executive? Even at this late date, the field is still growing. …
Look how much turnover is possible in the 47-member state Senate: A dozen seats or more are at play.
Kurtz proposed several reasons for the large amount of electoral uncertainty: (1) a generational change in voters and candidates; (2) a weakening of the long-entrenched Democratic party leadership; (3) the increasing role of women and minority candidates; and (4) the political dynamic of President Donald Trump.