NOAA’s three-month season outlook shows Maryland is poised to have a warmer-than-average winter with a normal level of precipitation.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) 2025–2026 winter outlook indicates that, due to a weak and likely short-lived La Niña, Maryland can expect temperatures that trend 30% – 40% above seasonal normals, while precipitation projections for the Mid-Atlantic fall into an “equal chances” category. This means there is no strong signal for either a notably wetter or drier winter in Maryland, and local conditions will continue to be driven by individual systems, such as coastal storms and Nor’easters, rather than by a dominant seasonal pattern.
For Maryland counties, this outlook points to a familiar winter planning challenge: a background pattern that leans milder, but plenty of room for high-impact, short-duration storms. The National Weather Service (NWS) underscores that seasonal outlooks do not predict total seasonal snowfall. While average temperatures are set to be warmer, there is still a likelihood of severe storms.
