Public budgeting – broadly speaking, providing services based on revenues attached to economic activity – is likely to face challenges from several emerging trends. An analysis looking at “state budgets” likely had comparable considerations for county fiscal leaders, too.
The Pew Trusts, through its project on “Managing Fiscal Risks” lays out a series of ways that state budgets, and likely all public spending plans, will face new challenges in the years ahead.
From an article on the Pew website:
Crafting a state budget is a delicate balancing act in the best of times. Policymakers must estimate spending needs, predict revenue trends, and balance countless competing urgent priorities, all while maintaining a structurally balanced budget.
These demands can make it difficult for fiscal leaders to look beyond the needs of the immediate budget cycle and consider how major shifts in the status quo could disrupt their states’ fiscal future. But with major demographic, environmental, and technological changes on the horizon, states must find ways to look ahead and consider the potential fiscal impact of these new and emerging risks to ensure that they have time to plan for and manage these future budget challenges.
The full article, from author Peter Muller, a former non-partisan fiscal official with the Tennessee General Assembly, goes on to illustrate coming revenue effects of an aging population, climate and disaster-related spending needs, and cybersecurity concerns.
