At the 2023 MACo Winter Conference, economist Dr. Daraius Irani explained Maryland’s current economic conditions and forecasted where the state might head.
At the MACo Winter Conference general session, “In This Economy? Forecasting and Funding Maryland’s Future,” leading economist Dr. Daraius Irani reviewed the trends and expectations for Maryland’s near-term economy and its effects on county governments. Dr. Irani National covered how national economic trends affect our workforce, our local economy, and the county government’s ability to budget responsibly while providing critical services.
Speaker
- Dr. Daraius Irani, VP of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research, Towson University
Moderator: The Honorable Jack Wilson, Commissioner, Queen Anne’s County
Dr. Irani opened with a brief overview of the national economy and how the supply chain, workforce, inflation, and international conflict all impact our national and local economic situations. In Maryland, this is particularly true, according to Dr. Irani, as we are unusually vulnerable to what is happening in D.C., like political strife and the threat of a federal shutdown.
Looking at key economic indicators, Dr. Irani highlighted that:
- Consumption is up;
- Investment is slowly tricking up;
- Unemployment is down, however, a lot of folks are still not looking for work and have permanently or long-term left the workforce; and
- The trade deficit is down from 2022, however, half of the goods coming into the U.S. are considered intermediate goods, or goods used to create other goods, not finished products.
Furthermore, the supply chain is largely back to normal. However, inflation remains high, but dropping.
Dr. Irani also addressed the housing crisis. Dr. Irani said that today’s housing crisis is a direct result of the 2008 recession. When the housing market failed, we simply stopped building housing stock. Today, that means we literally don’t have enough houses for those looking.
Dr. Irani also looked at Maryland’s economy. He noted that:
- Maryland currently has historic levels of low unemployment on paper. However, there are some caveats:
- Maryland’s labor participation was 69 percent before the pandemic but is down to 63.5 percent today
- This means we’re still down 100k+ workers
- Marylanfd’s GDP is underperforming, which means tax revenues are down, which means public services will suffer statewide and locally.
Overall, the 25-54-years-old age group did get back to work pre-pandemic. So did women. Healthcare and IT remain the highest-need sector for workers in Maryland.
More about MACo’s Winter Conference:
