Board of Revenue Estimates Approves Modest Adjustments to Current, Future Forecasts

Economic uncertainty remains as recession risks linger.

In the final meeting for two of its three members, the Maryland Board of Revenue Estimates voted today to increase state revenue projections for fiscal 2023 to $23.74 billion, an uptick of $55.8 million, representing less than one-quarter of one percent of annual revenues.

The Board, which consists of Comptroller Peter Franchot, Treasurer Dereck Davis, and Budget Secretary David Brinkley, also lowered revenue projections for fiscal 2024 to $25.1 billion, a decrease of $166.8 million from the forecast approved in September.

Source: Board of Revenue Estimates

 

The modest increase for the current fiscal year indicates that revenue collections are generally performing as expected since September’s report, which took a more conservative approach. The more substantial reduction for fiscal 2024 reflects a decrease in capital gains income and unchanged projections in withholding, sales and use, and corporate income taxes, three of the state’s biggest revenue sources.

“It’s a stark reminder that the days of counting on federal stimulus money have come and gone; an economic slowdown is here,” said Comptroller Franchot after Bureau of Revenue Estimates Director Robert Rehrmann presented the official forecast.

It was the final BRE meeting for both Franchot, who has served four terms as the state’s chief financial officer, and Brinkley, who has led the Department of Budget and Management for the entirety of Governor Larry Hogan’s eight years in office.

Comptroller-elect Brooke Lierman will be sworn in on January 16, 2023, and Governor-elect Wes Moore has nominated Helene Grady to serve as DBM secretary.

Stay tuned to Conduit Street for more information.

At the 2022 MACo Winter Conference, an expert panel will discuss why economic uncertainty around persistent inflation, supply chain issues, labor issues, and borrowing costs affect capital planning. In addition, the panel will share best practices for planning and financing capital projects to meet public infrastructure and facility needs.

MACo’s Winter Conference, “Hit the Ground Running,” is at the Hyatt Regency Chesapeake Bay Hotel in Cambridge, MD, from January 4-6, 2023 (with a pre-conference orientation for new county officials on January 3).

Learn more about MACo’s Winter Conference:

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