State officials say even a decade of optimistic growth will not bring school systems back in line with pre-COVID enrollment or Blueprint estimates following a recent report by the Maryland Department of Planning.

Last Thursday the Maryland Department of Planning (MDP) presented the 2025 – 2034 prekindergarten through 12th grade school enrollment projections to the Interagency Commission on School Construction (IAC). This is a statutorily mandated report and these estimates help the IAC anticipate school construction needs so they can plan effectively for cost sharing with local jurisdictions. According to the report, the admittedly optimistic projections for 2025 – 2026 public school enrollment will fall around 861,580 students which is 32,300 less than the pre-COVID Blueprint numbers anticipated. The school year for 2026 – 2027 will be see 31,410 students missing. These numbers include any gains from prekindergarten expansion.

Alfred Sundara, Assistant Secretary of the State Data and Analysis Center in the Maryland Department of Planning, started off the presentation to the IAC with an overview of historic trends and prediction methodology. He highlighted that school enrollment projection inputs include the below, with birth rates being the driving factor according to Sundara, with those rates dropping steadily by thousands since 2015.

• births
• kindergarten to birth ratios
• 1st grade to birth ratios
• grade succession ratios

Sundara also shared multiple charts comparing the changes in private school and home school enrollment against public school numbers. While there was some modest initial recovery in public school enrollment following the height of the pandemic, the schools continued to lose 3,000 to 4,000 students annually. Sundara’s analysis of the shift was that,”the missing children in the public school system are in the homeschooling environment and they have not come back.”

From the charts, home schooling jumped from 27,754 to 42,632 in 2020 and then jumped again in 2021 to 44,931. They lost down to 39,569 in 2022 and then gained again to 40,123 in 2023. The numbers show that, despite the fluctuations, over a three year period home schooling has gained more than 12,000 students that do not yet appear to be making their way back into the school system.

In summarizing the findings of the report and presentation, IAC Executive Director Alex Donahue shared that the central takeaway is the state and local projections historically are pretty close to the actual numbers. He went on to say that since the next decade will not bring the school system back to pre-COVID enrollment, then the focus of the IAC should be on enhancing and maintaining existing schools where possible rather than significantly expanding the number of facilities.